Gear up for 2018!

Friday, Dec 05 2017
Source/Contribution by : NJ Publications

Another year full of surprises and shocks, has formally come to an end. Although, the introduction of GST did create ripples, businesses were hit for some time, but we are on a recovery mode. 2017 was one of the best years for Indian Equity Markets since the 2008 global recession. The markets were on a roll, with the major indices delivering more than 25% return for this year, the mutual funds industry witnessed equity inflows of Rs 178,878 Cr in the year 2017. Things are going great. Certainly, investors have made money during the year, and now it's time to start gearing up for the next year. At this point, we have penned down a list of steps, some do's and dont's which can help you get the maximum out of the year 2018 and onwards financially.

Don't Redeem your long term investments for the markets are trading high: Your long term investments should not be left at the mercy of the 2008 recession or the 2017 boom. Many market gurus are propagating that this is the "market peak" and it's the "right time" to liquidate your investments. Well, we don't know whether this is the peak, and we are sure neither do they. The markets are forever subject to volatility, they might correct or they might surge. Our long term goals cannot be achieved if we start timing the volatile markets. If you liquidate the investment kept for your daughter's wedding, which was up 50% from the time you invested, hoping to re-invest when the markets correct. What if the markets do not correct any soon, or even if they do, how would you know when they are at their lowest, what if the money you redeemed vanishes while meeting your current liquidity needs. Although, your 10 lacs did come back to you as 15 lakhs, but your daughter's wedding goes for a toss.

Don't stop your SIP's: On the same logic as above, it is not prudent to stop your SIP's. The Rupee Cost Averaging will work to average out the cost of your investment whether this is the peak or whether Indian markets continue with the bull run. And your uninterrupted long term investments will ensure that you make the most of the Power of Compounding, while controlling the cost with Rupee Cost Averaging. The idea behind the SIP mode of investing is imparting discipline and peace of mind to the investor by saving him the stress caused by constantly checking as to what would be the right time to invest and redeem.

Stay away from:

  • Gold: Gold one of the most trusted and sought after investment product is gradually losing its sheen, for the simple reason, people aren't making money, it's reflecting in the gold import volume also, which is consistently on the decline since 2011. Gold prices have remained flat over the past few years. And apparently, there are no signs of a quick turnaround in 2018, so avoid investing in Gold. Restrict gold purchase to the once in a while impulsive purchase of an exquisite jewelery piece only. Don't buy gold hoping to get a return from it.
  • Real Estate: Another favourite of Indian investors isn't an attractive investment opportunity for this year also. Like gold, property prices have also remained stagnant for most parts of the country, in fact in some places, the prices have alleviated. Plus the RERA Act and the government restrictions imposed on real estate, as it was earlier a safe haven for parking black money has further smudged the sector. So, at this point in time, apart from the house you are acquiring for self use, limit your investment Portfolio's exposure to Realty.
  • Traditional Debt instruments: The interest rates are consistently falling, and it makes no sense to invest your hard earned money in a fixed deposit for a meagre 6-7% return. The after tax return may not be even able to cover the inflation cost. In fact, the government has announced the last cut on small savings rate (PPF, NSC and KVP) just a week back. So, stay away from FD's and other low return yielding products, instead look at bonds, debt Mutual Funds if you want to keep your risk low, while generating better, tax efficient returns.

Review your home loan: When the deposit rates are falling, so are the loan interest rates. So, if you have an ongoing home loan, ensure you are being levied the new reduced rates. Meet your banker, and seek options for reducing the interest rates, like switching to the adjustable interest rate option, or switching to a lower interest rate plan, etc. Follow the Plan of Action and have a happy and a prosperous New Year!

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Is Bitcoin taking away your good night's sleep?

Friday, Dec 29 2017
Source/Contribution by : NJ Publications

Bitcoins and Blockchains are the most talked about topics globally. The newspapers are flooded with updates on the Bitcoin rally, anecdotes of how people made millions in this rally, columns on how you can make money in Bitcoins are visible all around.

Bitcoin, the undisputed king of cryptocurrencies took off in the year 2009, priced at $0, however the real adventure began only lately. Bitcoin started with a little less than a 1,000 dollars in January 2017, and touched a little less than 18K dollars in Dec 2017. It has tripled over the last two months alone, from 5.5K in mid October to 17.5K in mid December. This steep rally and the hype has left people wondering “I wish I had a Bitcoin”, it has left us with a feeling of regret, why didn't we invest earlier; of envy, because someone else made money while we didn't; of greed, we wish to make make quick money by investing now; and of hope, we aspire for a repeat telecast of history.

Many of you might be wondering that why didn't your advisor made you invest in a Bitcoin earlier.

You may argue that equity shares similar characteristics, equity prices can witness quick rise and fall and still you invest in Equity. But the answer to this lies in the basic difference between a stock and a Bitcoin. The price of stocks is not merely a matter of market sentiment, but it's backed by the company's fundamentals, it's profits, it's assets, liabilities, it's management, it's future prospects. While, Bitcoins do not have an inherent value, there is no underlying asset which backs the value of a bitcoin. They are traded in the virtual world. When a good stock falls, it is largely due to market volatility or a negative news, it's generally a short term phenomenon, if the stock's fundamentals are strong, you know it's a matter of time before it restores to it's normal course. But in the case of a Bitcoin, “you cannot be Sure”. You may buy today at $15,000, it can go upto $100,000, but it can take a U-turn also, it may fall to 10K, or 5K or 2K, it can even be the next tulip bulb bubble, and can be reduced to where it started from “zero”. We don't know. Nobody knows.

Today, one of the primary reasons for the Bitcoin surge is the investors' FOMO, Fear of Missing out. Fear of missing out the big opportunity to make quick money, the thrill, the extraordinary gains which their peers are making, of being foreign to the hottest word of finance today. The rush of emotions and inclination towards Bitcoin is obvious. That feeling of FOMO indeed is sickening. It's normal that you are troubled for not having invested at the “Right time”.

But do you know, when the world of ace investors are at it, the biggest of all, Warren Buffet has taken a back seat. According to Buffet, “You can't value bitcoin, because it's a not a value producing asset.” It is impossible to value a Bitcoin. You don't know whether it was expensive at $5,000 or cheap at $15,000.

Our word of advice for our investors is,

  • Invest only when you understand the product. It's foolish to base your investing decision on mere emotions.
  • If you still wish to experience the thrill, set an amount you'd be okay to lose, the amount should be a very small percentage of your assets. Think you are going to a casino. Do not bet your life on it. Do not sell your investments and buy Bitcoins to overcome your FOMO. Great if it was your day, and you anyway had fun even if you lost.
  • Distance yourself from short term trading, be it share trading or crypto-trading.

Bitcoin can emerge as the most powerful currencies of all times in the coming years, or it may be a bubble, the biggest of all financial bubbles, and you may not want to be a victim of it's wreckage.

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First Anniversary of Demonetization; What did we Learn?

November 8, 2017 marked the first anniversary of the news, which left all Indians in jitters, the historic Demonetization stroke of the Indian Government. The move that was intended to uproot black money, corruption, terrorism and fake currency out of the economy. After a year the scenario is, we have one set of politicians who are on their toes parading the blessings that Demonetization has bestowed upon the economy and on the other hand we have another set who are trying to prove that it only brought destruction and bad fortune.

Whether Demonetization was able to do the needful or it failed in its purpose, is a separate question altogether. Amidst the high profile debates propounded by the Democratic league, we the common man, have our own set of experiences and memories, good and bad, associated with NoteBandi. This chaotic phase has delivered many financial lessons for the common Indian man. So, this article focuses on what did we learn during this one year, and how the lessons can be helpful in managing our finances better.

Don't keep cash at home: The biggest lesson that Demonetization has taught us is 'Do no hoard Cash'. Money lying idle in your cupboards can have serious repercussions like:

  • The cash is vulnerable to being stolen.
  • The money is gradually diminishing in value. The termite, inflation is slowly nipping it away inch by inch.

Why do you want to handle so much cash after all? If you already had cash in your banks, there was no need to affix yourself to the queue, anterior to the banks on 9th November 2016 and onwards.

And this is applicable to both households as well as businessmen. The latter who deal in cash are also subject to the above side effects.

So, the first step of action is if you still have cash lying at your places, go and deposit the same in your bank account.

Secondly, invest that cash, apart from a little emergency money for your near term cash requirements, so as to shield your money from the inflation attack.

Digitization: Another wind of change that Demonetization has brought in the way we live is the embracement of technology. And the scale at which it has made it's way into our lives is noteworthy. Post the NoteBandi, people were not left with an option but to use digital means for their everyday transactions. Such was the plight that even the sabjiwala's and the small grocery stores, started accepting payments through digital wallets and got their own card machines. Although the cashless phase has passed, yet their machines and wallet codes are in tact and the number of transactions are on the increase.

Demonetization has broken many apprehensions related to Digitization, people who didn't even have a debit card now use wallets and UPI App for buying groceries.

It was witnessed that those who were comfortable with technology a year ago, were better off than those to whom technology was alien. Furthermore, we should start adopting technology:

  • For our own good, because of the unmatched convenience and safety it offers.
  • And, the government's intentions with respect to its penetration are clear, so the future will be majorly digital, so the sooner we adopt technology, the better it will be.

Tax Planning: Post Demonetization, those who had huge chunks of unreported income, suffered dire consequences. Those who deposited more than Rs 2 Lacs in their accounts had to report this deposit separately in their tax returns. Those who fumbled in filing returns previously found themselves in a hapless situation. There were series of scrutinies and raids conducted in people's homes and offices for not contributing their share to the economy. On the whole, Demonetization clearly conveyed the message, Be honest and file your returns in time.

And why should you evade taxes, when there are multiple methods to legally avoid them. Consult your advisor and invest in a range of products which can help you save a lot of taxes.

So, the above were the lessons which we can learn from the ripples created post Demonetization. Effective implementation of these learnings into our finances can make our lives easier in the long run.

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